The Gambler's Fallacy as it relates to theology.
Go.
Written on Tuesday, October 9, 2007 by minott
Are You Ready For Some DIIIIISCOOOOOOURSE!?!?!
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6 Responses to "Are You Ready For Some DIIIIISCOOOOOOURSE!?!?!"
October 10, 2007 at 12:41 PM
Well, I think its a little unfair to put us up to this task without your opinion for us to tear apart first (or maybe that's smart)
But I'll bite.
Its interesting and it certainly seems to make sense but I don't quite see how you are suggesting it to theology. My only guess, and perhaps this would be it, is the probability of random evolution without a designer. Which seems to be a tried and true argument against evolution and in favor of intelligent design.
I'll respond by paraphrasing another blogger I check often. She simply said, and I'll have to add her link to the links page because she has good rants all the time, that questioning the probability of us being here is like questioning the probability of your parents meeting and creating you. There are a million odds (not and exact figure) against them meeting and having children. And then to compound that there are million different scenarios that could have played out in one way or another to make you who you are today. Yet we are forced to swallow the fact that is did happen.
And so the gambler's fallacy doesn't really apply to evolution because everything we know tells us that it did happen. Just like a gambler betting on five heads in a row in a coin toss and it happening. Its highly unlikely but it happened. Funny you'd probably here that gambler thanking god too.
And this whole business of probability doesn't really shake me up that much because of the size of the universe. I mean if our odds are one in a million, well okay there are a billion galaxies out there with thousands of inhabitable worlds. That's what the Drake equation is all about. Our odds are pretty good.
October 10, 2007 at 5:11 PM
Actually, I saw it more as "flawed premises result in flawed results."
It's about not understanding how reality works, and from there coming up with wildly irreconcilable ideas.
Additionally, I played around with the probability thing when I was subbing at my old (christian) high school. I remembered that one of the "solid" arguments against evolution that they had was, of course, the odds. So, I taught the kids what an exercise in odds and probability looks like.
I brought a deck of cards, did some quick cheat-shuffle tricks to make them laugh, and then shuffled for real and gave everyone a random card until all the cards were gone. I then asked them what they thought the odds were that we'd get this exact result (i first taught them what the word "permutation" meant). They'd say things like 1 in a thousand, or a billion, or a trillion. You don't even get through half the deck before the odds become well over a 5 with 24 zeros after it. And it only gets more ridiculous from there.
So after I dealt out all the cards, I wrote down the full odds on the board (luckily it was a really large dry erase board), and I asked them if, just because this particular permutation is THIS unlikely, did it therefore not happen?
October 10, 2007 at 9:08 PM
I think to see god as the person that changes the odds kinda cheapens the concept of god. So he is the one that fudged the numbers, and made life that little bit more likely. I don't like that idea.
I agree with your point Jeph about evolution and being born to your parents. I hope more christians stop fighting evolution, or find a way to fight better?
October 11, 2007 at 9:54 AM
Minott, so sorry to be in the dark here, but what "premise" are you suggesting is flawed? I would assume the current "main stream" idea of God, but that's just me. And thus I see the flawed results.
And to further that, in the wiki they talk about a gambler doubling their bet when they lose. It sounds like a lot of fundamentalist who hold strongly to their beliefs in an ever increasing attempt to bait off what the world is really telling them.
Also, Its interesting that you did that little experiment at the school. Being a Christian school (Decatur Christian?) I'm interested to know how that little class exercise went over. What class was it for? Where you making a deliberate attempt to have to students think against creationism? I can't imagine the higher ups took that too well.
Nathan, I agree with you, and I love you...sorry just wanted to say that. But anyway, I like where you are going with god being cheapened and more accurately I think it has to do with what you where saying earlier about the character of god being different then science. Things like intelligent design miss the point of why people have belief entirely. It's just miss guided all around. And yes, they need to get over the evolution thing, I mean, seriously its been over a hundred years. But then again how long did it take the Catholic church to apologize to Galileo? Maybe five hundred years?
October 11, 2007 at 11:39 PM
Really, I think you're getting too specific... When I first read the entry, I thought it to be excellently applicable in the abstract, sort of a good example of what we're all trying to figure out here anyway.
Regarding the cards, I presented it with a slant more toward A) unlikely does not in any way equal impossible, and B) it's probably not a good idea to accept things textbooks say without actually thinking about whether or not they make sense.
The demonstration went over well with the kids who got what I was getting at, because I tied it in with that long, crazy equation that is supposed to ascribe the probability of the existence of life on other planet. The deck of cards had a significantly higher number in the "1 in ______" line, so I joked that I just proved aliens existed. Unfortunately, the nature of some high school students leaves it impossible to be sarcastic, because they will have absolutely no idea what you mean.
October 11, 2007 at 11:39 PM
and yes, decatur christian.
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